Machine learning predicts the short-term requirement for invasive ventilation among Australian critically ill COVID-19 patients.

OBJECTIVE(S): To use machine learning (ML) to predict short-term requirements for invasive ventilation in patients with COVID-19 admitted to Australian intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN: A machine learning study within a national ICU COVID-19 registry in Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients who were spontaneously breathing and admitted to participating ICUs with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 20 February 2020 to 7 March 2021. Patients intubated on day one of their ICU admission were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Six machine learning models predicted the requirement for invasive ventilation by day three of ICU admission from variables recorded on the first calendar day of ICU admission; (1) random forest classifier (RF), (2) decision tree classifier (DT), (3) logistic regression (LR), (4) K neighbours classifier (KNN), (5) support vector machine (SVM), and (6) gradient boosted machine (GBM). Cross-validation was used to assess the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of machine learning models. RESULTS: 300 ICU admissions collected from 53 ICUs across Australia were included. The median [IQR] age of patients was 59 [50-69] years, 109 (36%) were female and 60 (20%) required invasive ventilation on day two or three. Random forest and Gradient boosted machine were the best performing algorithms, achieving mean (SD) AUCs of 0.69 (0.06) and 0.68 (0.07), and mean sensitivities of 77 (19%) and 81 (17%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Machine learning can be used to predict subsequent ventilation in patients with COVID-19 who were spontaneously breathing and admitted to Australian ICUs.

Update on glucose control during and after critical illness.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: There is a complex bidirectional relationship between critical illness and disordered glucose metabolism. This review aims to provide a comprehensive summary of the recent evidence focused on the relationship between critical illness and disordered glucose metabolism through the distinct phases of prior to, during, and after an acute illness that requires admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). RECENT FINDINGS: Recent data suggest that preexisting glucose metabolism affects the optimal blood glucose target during critical illness, with preliminary data suggesting that glucose targets should be 'personalized' based on preexisting glycemia. Because of the close association between critical illness and disordered glucose metabolism, there is a need to optimize glucose monitoring in the ICU with rapid, precise, and cost-efficient measurements at the bedside. Recent studies have evaluated the use of various methodologies, with a focus on the use of near-continuous glucose monitoring. For those patients with preexisting diabetes who survive ICU, nocturnal hypoglycemia may be an unrecognized and important issue when discharged to the ward. There is increasing evidence that patients with high blood glucose during their acute illness, so called 'stress hyperglycemia', are at increased risk of developing diabetes in the years following recovery from the inciting event. Critically ill patients with COVID-19 appear at greater risk. SUMMARY: There have been important recent insights in the approach to glucose monitoring and glucose targets during critical illness, monitoring and administration of glucose-lowering drugs on discharge from the ICU, and longitudinal follow-up of patients with stress hyperglycemia.

Diabetes mellitus, glycaemic control, and severe COVID-19 in the Australian critical care setting: A nested cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Internationally, diabetes mellitus is recognised as a risk factor for severe COVID-19. The relationship between diabetes mellitus and severe COVID-19 has not been reported in the Australian population. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of and outcomes for patients with diabetes admitted to Australian intensive care units (ICUs) with COVID-19. METHODS: This is a nested cohort study of four ICUs in Melbourne participating in the Short Period Incidence Study of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SPRINT-SARI) Australia project. All adult patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 from 20 February 2020 to 27 February 2021 were included. Blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) data were retrospectively collected. Diabetes was diagnosed from medical history or an HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol). Hospital mortality was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 136 patients with median age 58 years [48-68] and median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score of 14 [11-19]. Fifty-eight patients had diabetes (43%), 46 patients had stress-induced hyperglycaemia (34%), and 32 patients had normoglycaemia (23%). Patients with diabetes were older, were with higher APACHE II scores, had greater glycaemic variability than patients with normoglycaemia, and had longer hospital length of stay. Overall hospital mortality was 16% (22/136), including nine patients with diabetes, nine patients with stress-induced hyperglycaemia, and two patients with normoglycaemia. CONCLUSION: Diabetes is prevalent in patients admitted to Australian ICUs with severe COVID-19, highlighting the need for prevention strategies in this vulnerable population.

Protocol summary and statistical analysis plan for Intensive Nutrition Therapy comparEd to usual care iN criTically ill adults (INTENT): a phase II randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: It is plausible that a longer duration of nutrition intervention may have a greater impact on clinical and patient-centred outcomes. The Intensive Nutrition care Therapy comparEd to usual care iN criTically ill adults (INTENT) trial will determine if a whole hospital nutrition intervention is feasible and will deliver more total energy compared with usual care in critically ill patients with at least one organ system failure. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a prospective, multicentre, unblinded, parallel-group, phase II randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted in 23 hospitals in Australia and New Zealand. Mechanically ventilated critically ill adult patients with at least one organ failure who have been in intensive care unit (ICU) for 72-120 hours and meet all of the inclusion and none of the exclusion criteria will be randomised to receive either intensive or usual nutrition care. INTENT started recruitment in October 2018 and a sample size of 240 participants is anticipated to be recruited in 2022. The study period is from randomisation to hospital discharge or study day 28, whichever occurs first, and the primary outcome is daily energy delivery from nutrition therapy. Secondary outcomes include daily energy and protein delivery during ICU and in the post-ICU period, duration of ventilation, ventilator-free days, total bloodstream infection rate and length of hospital stay. All other outcomes are considered tertiary and results will be analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been received in Australia (Alfred Hospital Ethics Committee (HREC/18/Alfred/101) and Human Research Ethics Committee of the Northern Territory Department of Health (2019-3372)) and New Zealand (Northern A Health and Disability Ethics Committee (18/NTA/222). Results will be disseminated in an international peer-reviewed journal(s), at scientific meetings and via social media. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03292237.

Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Australia: implications for screening and treatment.

We report four cases of invasive pulmonary aspergillus co-infection in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Aspergillus fumigatus and Aspergillus terreus were isolated, with early infection onset following ICU admission. Clinicians should be aware of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in ICU patients with COVID-19 infection, particularly those receiving dexamethasone. We propose screening of these high-risk patients with twice-weekly fungal culture from tracheal aspirate and, if feasible, Aspergillus polymerase chain reaction. Diagnosis is challenging and antifungal treatment should be considered in critically ill patients who have new or worsening pulmonary changes on chest imaging and mycological evidence of infection.

Expert consensus statements for the management of COVID-19-related acute respiratory failure using a Delphi method.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented pressure on healthcare system globally. Lack of high-quality evidence on the respiratory management of COVID-19-related acute respiratory failure (C-ARF) has resulted in wide variation in clinical practice. METHODS: Using a Delphi process, an international panel of 39 experts developed clinical practice statements on the respiratory management of C-ARF in areas where evidence is absent or limited. Agreement was defined as achieved when > 70% experts voted for a given option on the Likert scale statement or > 80% voted for a particular option in multiple-choice questions. Stability was assessed between the two concluding rounds for each statement, using the non-parametric Chi-square (χ2) test (p < 0·05 was considered as unstable). RESULTS: Agreement was achieved for 27 (73%) management strategies which were then used to develop expert clinical practice statements. Experts agreed that COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is clinically similar to other forms of ARDS. The Delphi process yielded strong suggestions for use of systemic corticosteroids for critical COVID-19; awake self-proning to improve oxygenation and high flow nasal oxygen to potentially reduce tracheal intubation; non-invasive ventilation for patients with mixed hypoxemic-hypercapnic respiratory failure; tracheal intubation for poor mentation, hemodynamic instability or severe hypoxemia; closed suction systems; lung protective ventilation; prone ventilation (for 16-24 h per day) to improve oxygenation; neuromuscular blocking agents for patient-ventilator dyssynchrony; avoiding delay in extubation for the risk of reintubation; and similar timing of tracheostomy as in non-COVID-19 patients. There was no agreement on positive end expiratory pressure titration or the choice of personal protective equipment. CONCLUSION: Using a Delphi method, an agreement among experts was reached for 27 statements from which 20 expert clinical practice statements were derived on the respiratory management of C-ARF, addressing important decisions for patient management in areas where evidence is either absent or limited. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered with Clinical trials.gov Identifier: NCT04534569.

Global Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Infection Requiring Admission to the ICU: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed unprecedented burden on the delivery of intensive care services worldwide. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the global point estimate of deaths and risk factors for patients who are admitted to ICUs with severe COVID-19? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane library were searched up to August 1, 2020. Pooled prevalence of participant characteristics, clinical features, and outcome data was calculated with the use of random effects models. Subgroup analyses were based on geographic distribution, study type, quality assessment, sample size, end date, and patient disposition. Studies that reported in-hospital mortality rate of adult patients (age >18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to an ICU met study eligibility criteria. Critical evaluation was performed with the Newcastle Ottawa Scale for nonrandomized studies. RESULTS: Forty-five studies with 16,561 patients from 17 countries across four continents were included. Patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to ICUs had a mean age of 62.6 years (95% CI, 60.4-64.7). Common comorbidities included hypertension (49.5%; 95% CI, 44.9-54.0) and diabetes mellitus (26.6%; 95% CI, 22.7-30.8). More than three-quarters of cases experienced the development of ARDS (76.1%; 95% CI, 65.7-85.2). Invasive mechanical ventilation was required in 67.7% (95% CI, 59.1-75.7) of case, vasopressor support in 65.9% (95% CI, 52.4-78.4) of cases, renal replacement therapy in 16.9% (95% CI, 12.1-22.2) of cases, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in 6.4% (95% CI, 4.1-9.1) of cases. The duration of ICU and hospital admission was 10.8 days (95% CI, 9.3-18.4) and 19.1 days (95% CI, 16.3-21.9), respectively, with in-hospital mortality rate of 28.1% (95% CI, 23.4-33.0; I2 = 96%). No significant subgroup effect was observed. INTERPRETATION: Critically ill patients with COVID-19 who are admitted to the ICU require substantial organ support and prolonged ICU and hospital level care. The pooled estimate of global death from severe COVID-19 is <1 in 3.